Kairong Xiao - May 6, 2020

Kairong Xiao, PhD, "Saving lives versus saving livelihoods: can big data technology solve the pandemic dilemma?"

Advocates of virus tracing apps argue that they are necessary for the resumption of sustainable economic activity, and point to successful implementations in China and South Korea. Detractors, however, warn us about the real threats of privacy infringement and government surveillance, and are quick to mention the mixed success of tracing apps in places like Singapore. Professor Kairong Xiao discussed his recent paper investigating the effects of virus tracing apps on the economic activity of 322 Chinese cities, and argues that tracing technology significantly revives economic activity while keeping outbreaks under control. He analyzes the staggered adoption of the “Health Code” apps by local governments, from the day the first app was adopted on February 9, through March 31, when they were adopted across the entire country. These apps act as effective travel passes, and only holders with "green" codes can be in a public space or travel between cities. Those with “yellow" or “red" codes are required to isolate or quarantine. The app adoption patterns are compared with two high frequency measures of economic activity - movement data from mobile phones, and nitrogen dioxide data. Xiao is careful to consider the economic importance of various cities, as well as the differential trajectory of outbreaks in each city, among other things. The study concludes that during this 2 month window, the introduction of the “Health Code” apps simultaneously mitigated further outbreaks and significantly increased local economic activity by close to 2%. The paper can be found here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...